Diffusion of Innovations Takes Time

by Lewis Berman

The idea of a tablet computer originated along with many other great ideas at Xerox Parc in the 1970's. Twenty years later, in 1999, there was still no commercially viable tablet, but the New York Times reported an effort by Microsoft to bring one to fruition [1]. Tablet computers were developed and marketed, but it took yet another decade for the concept to be widely adopted in the form of Apple's iPad. Why does technology adoption take that long? What is involved?

Everett Rogers sheds light on the subject in his book, "Diffusion of Innovations," now in its fifth edition [2]. Widespread diffusion of technology is a form of social change stimulated by communication through certain channels over time. Diffusion can happen in either planned or spontaneous ways. Major elements are the innovation itself, communication channels, time, and the social system. Success or failure and the rate of diffusion are determined by factors such as the effectiveness of the communication channel, the state of the social system, and the readiness of the cluster of technologies that make up the innovation.

The iPad's user interface, inherited from the breakthrough iPhone, was a key element in the the technology cluster missing from previous attempts at a tablet - a necessary element for diffusion to occur. Apple's visibility and credibility with new innovations gave it a favored position with respect to the communication channel. The social system was at a point of readiness to accept an innovation that would complement existing computing and networking technologies. The social system was also ready to accept a highly portable, lightweight computing platform due to its members' physical mobility and possibly accelerated due to airlines' baggage restrictions.

Adoption may be optional and thus performed on a largely individual basis, or it may be mandatory within an organization. "Optional" adoption may be coerced by social systems. (To illustrate such coercion: many 14 year old girls were "required" to see the midnight premiere of Harry Potter or risk being left behind on their perceived social ladder!) iPhone diffusion seems to have occured in the "optional" way. The Microsoft .NET platform, on the other hand, was made a standard in many organizations. Either way, a small group of change agents leads the way, often making use of a separate group of opinion leaders. Successful adoption appears as an S-shaped curve over time. The curve takes off at 10 to 20 percent. Agile software development methods appear to be in the vertical part of the S-shaped curve. Traditional thought has expressed the adoption cycle as taking 30 to 50 years. With the advent of rapid communication vehicles such as social networking, it may be much faster today in some cases.

As far back as 1985, Revwine and Riddle examined case studies of software technology maturation leading to diffusion [3]. They uncovered six phases:

1. Basic Research
2. Concept Formulation
3. Development and Extension
4. Enhancement and Exploration - internal
5. Enhancement and Exploration - external
6. Popularization (Diffusion)

Xerox Parc was legendary for basic research, which gave birth to the tablet concept. Xerox did not physically realize the tablet. By the time the iPad came along, there existed a number of commercial tablets. Apple enhanced the concept internally by perfecting the user interface as well as a number of companion hardware and software technologies. The iPad actually benefited through removal of capabilities thought to be essential - for example, unnecessary peripheral ports [4]. Exernal enhancement occurs in tandem with diffusion through the development of competing tables by companies other than Apple.

References:

1. Markoff, John. Microsoft Brings in Top Talent to Pursue Old Goal: The Tablet. New York Times, August 30, 1999.

2. Rogers, Everett. Diffusion of Innovations, Fifth Edition. Free Press, New York, 2003.

3. Redwine, Samuel, and Riddle, William. Software Technology Maturation. Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Software Engineering, 1985, pages 189-200.

4. Gruman, Galen. The iPad's victory in defining the tablet: what it means. Infoworld, July 5, 2011.